Fin301 Online discussion 2 22 Aug 2010

Q1) Discuss in what ways Temasek’s bond issue has helped deepen the bond markets in Singapore.

Temasek holding, being the investment arm of the Singapore Government, credited AAA by Standard and Poor, Aaa by Moody's have been view by many investors as a "well known" corporation. With the current low interest environment, many investor are on the look out for "good buys". Temasek's bond definitely falls into that category.

The bond market in Singapore has existed since 1960s but, Temasek is the first corporation to issue such 40 year bonds. Temasek holding had also issued bond in US dollars, Sterlings and Singapore Dollars.

More investor, locally as well as foreign will be taking an interest in our local bond market. With the overwhelming demand for the bond, there will not be a lack of suitor in the secondary market. This creates liquidity for bond investors.

Temasek holdings also had path way for many corporation to come into the bond market. With more investor interested in the local bond market, as well as the liquidity in the second market, demand will definitely be on the rise. Many corporation will be able to issue bond to cater to the demand and raise cash for their own capital.

Though it might still take sometime for our local bond market to grow, Temasek Holdings have definitely open the door to it.



http://www.fundsupermart.com/main/sgsInfo/sgsIntro.tpl
http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2010/07/20/temaseks-sterling-bonds-shine/?KEYWORDS=temasek+bond
http://online.wsj.com/article/NA_WSJ_PUB:SB10001424052748704625004575089141725385782.html



Q2) Discuss the various risks that investors should be mindful of when investing in bonds.

Interest rate risk, refers to the value of the bond, increasing or decreasing due to the fluctuation of the interest rate. Whenever the interest rate increase, the bond value will decrease. Conversely when the interest rate decrease, the value of the bond increase.
Inflation risk refers to the risk that income earn from the coupon interest might be eroded by inflation. The coupon interest is fixed but inflation might fluctuate. Inflation risk are higher for longer term bonds.
Currency risk refers to the risk involve when converting the foreign currency-denominated bonds to the local currency. Not all bonds are denominated in Singapore dollars thus if the bonds that you invest in is a foreign currency, you will be exposed to the currency risk.
Risk of default of issuer refers to the risk, when the issuer are not able to repay the coupon interest or the pricinpal value when facing financial problems. This will cause the investor to potentially lose all of the capital invested in the bond.

Source of research : http://www.hsbc.com.sg/1/2/miscellaneous/personal/investments/bonds-risks

FIN301 Online discussion window 1 070810

I am suprised by his choice of words use in the article, definitely there were Financial conglomerates like AIG and RBS that have suffered from diversifications and poor investment strategies. The 2008 financial turnoil sparkled by the collapse of Lehman has affected almost all, manufacturing, financial, service sectors were all badly affected.

There are, however, financial conglomerates which have suffered losses but not generally because of diversification. Bing Jie mention about Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway is one prime example. Warren Buffett lost billions during the financial crisis but was it due to diversification or contagion from small part of the business? My opinion is that instead of divesification, it was due to the overall losses suffer during the crisis. Joyce who mentioned about confidence of investor and instuition is probably right. The fall of Lehman brother probably affected the confidence of many, causing a chain reactions from investors to consumers.

In the past it might hold true that the business strategy used on retail customers might have been product driven, emphasising transactions over relationships. In recent, years fiancial conglomerates have move from product driven to building a long term relationship. In the banking sector, you would probably see campaign like serving customer within 8 minutes, follow up within 2days. Insurance agents would probably visit you personally when you met with an accident or have a newborn in the family. All this shows that the shift has move from product driven to customer focused.

In order to keep up with competition, FIs have been offering more than just one service. Is this neccessary seem as a bad move? Take example of banks in Singapore, they are not just serving the retail customers, many of the banks are also targeting the investment and insurance clients.
Traditionally you would go to an insurance agent for insurance, investment company for investment, but the banks are working towards a all in one service provider, a one stop service as Irene call it. Take Standard Charter Bank as an example, they do not have their own insurance subsidary, but they do have a partnership with prudential. The partnership have been going on for years. If Standardard Charter Bank were to buy over Prudential, the resulting fiancial conglomerates would be able to offer clients all 3 form of service, investment, insurance and retail banking. What would you think of that?

Large financial conglomerates might be difficult to manage, but with the right experience proper regulation and supervision, things might just work.




Q2) Should financial conglomerates be allowed to continue as many critics felt that they impede competition by restricting new entrants?



You can choose to discuss one question or both questions in your posts.

You have until Sunday 8 February, midnight, to participate in the discussion. You are expected to do the following:

- Contribute at least 2 posts this week.

- Limit each post to 250 words.

- Write not more than 1 post per day.

- Make more than one point per post.

- Observe netiquette.

I look forward to reading your contributions! Please do not hesitate to e-mail me should you have specific questions on how to participate in the forum.

I hope that you’ll find this article interesting.

See you tomorrow!

All the best,

Marie-Laure

Management

TYPES OF CONTROL

Feed forward control

1) Anticipatory and attempt to identify and prevent deviations before they occur
2) Focuses on human, material and financial resources
3) Ensure input quality is sufficiently high to prevent problems
4) Another type of feed-forward control is forecasting trends in environment and managing risk

Concurrent control

1) Monitors ongoing employee activities to ensure that they are consistent with the performance standards
2) Assesses current work activities
3) Relies on performance standards, rules and regulations for guiding employee task.
4) Includes self-control imposed on behavior because of values

Feedback control

1) Focuses on organization's output.
2) Budgeting is a form of feedback control because managers monitor whether they have operated within their budget targets and make adjustment accordingly.




DIFFERENTIAE BETWEEN MANAGER AND LEADER

Manager promotes stability, order and problem solving within existing organization structure and systems

Leader promote vision, creativity and change, questioning the status quo so that outdated, unproductive and socially irresponsible norms can be replaced

A leader cannot replace a manager. A good manager helps organization meet current commitments. A good leader move the organization into the future

A manager takes care of where your are while a leader takes you to the future




Bureaucratic control

1) Involves monitoring and influencing employee behavior through rules, policies, hierarchy of authority, written documentation and reward system.
2) Bureaucratic methods define explicit rules, polices and procedures for employee behavior
3) Control relies on centralized authority, formal hierarchy and close personal supervision
4) E.g. Responsibility for quality control lies with quality control officers or supervisors rather employee.
5) It can enhance organization effectiveness and efficiency

Decentralized control

1) Relies on shared values and goals to control employee's behavior
2) Manager operate on the assumption that employees are trustworthy and willing to perform efficiently without extensive rules and close supervision
3) The organization places great emphasis on selection and socialization of employee to ensure that workers have the needed values to influence behavior which meets goals.
4) Culture is adaptive and important in uniting individual, teams and organizational goals for greater overall control




TQM and QC

1) TQM is based on the decentralize theory,
2) It infuses quality into every activity through continuous improvement.
3) Organization implement TQM by encouraging managers employees to collaborate across functions and departments as well as with customer and suppliers to identify areas for improvement no matter how small.
4) TQM philosophy focuses on teamwork, increasing customer satisfaction and lowering cost

Quality Circle

1) a group of 6-12 volunteer employees who meets up regularly to discuss and solve problems affecing the quality of their work
2) they meet regularly during work hours to identify problem and find solutions.
3) the reason for using quality circle is to push decision making to a level at which recommendations can be made by those who do the job.

Bench Marking

1) is the continuous process of measuring products, services, and practices against the toughest competitors or industry leaders
2) a company must honestly analyse its current procedures and determine areas for improvement
3) a company carefully selects competitors worthy of copying and emulates their internal process and procedures.

Factors affecting success of TQM

1) Quality circles are most beneficial when job is challenging
2) when it enriches jobs and improves employee's motivation
3) when participation improves employ problem solving skill, productivity us likely to increase
4) when corporate culture, valuea quality and stress on continuous improvement as a way of life

Balaenced score card is a management control system that balances traditional finance measure and operational measure that is relating to the company's critical success. It includes the 4 major perspective

1) Financial performance perspective reflects a concern that organization activities contribute to short and long term financial performance

2) Customer service indicators measure such things as how customer view the organization, customer retention and satisfaction

3) Business process indicators focus on production and operating statistics

4) Potential for learning and growth focus on how well resources and human capital are being manage for the company's future

Managers focus on the various element of the scorecard to set targets, evaluate performance, and guide discussion about what further actions to take.

A key to successful implementation of the balanced scorecard approach is a performance management orientation rathan a performance measurement orientation.




Transformational leader and their behaviour

1) Similar to charismatic leaders
2) Distinguished by their special ability to bring about innovation and change by:
---Recognizing followers' needs and concerns
---Have the ability to change organization mission, structure and human resource
---Helping them look at old problems in new ways
---Encouraging them to question status quo
---Focus on the intangibles such as vision, values, ideas to build relationship, give larger meaning to activities and enlist follower in change
---recent studies show that transformational leaders has a positive impact on follower development and performance
---transformational leadership skill can be learnt and not ingrain in personal characteristics




Hershey and blanchard's theory

Relationship behaviour = supportive behavior
Task behavior = guidance

LRB + LTB = Delegating, turn over responsibility for decision and implementation
Suitable for very high follower readiness, where they are experience and skillful and has readiness to accept responsibility

HRB + LTB = Participating, share ideas and facilitate decision making
Suitable for high follower readiness, where they are experience and skillful enough, the leader would need to provide a general goal, delegates sufficient authority to do the task, and the followers will complete the task as they see fit

HRB + HTB = Selling, explain decisions and give opportunities to clarify
Suitable for moderate follower readiness, where they are might lack some skill and experience for the job, selling gives direction but include seeking input and from others and clarifying task

LRB + HTB = Telling, provide specific instruction and close monitoring
Suitable for low follower readiness, where followers have poor skill and no experience for the job, the leaders tells followers how to do it, what to do and when to do it.

Easier to understand but incorporates the follwer characteristic not those of the situation.




4 types of problem

1) Certainty
- All the information the decision maker needs is fully available

2) Risk
- Decision has clear-cut goals
- Good information is available
- Future outcomes asscociated with each alternative are subject to chance
- however enough information is available to allow the probablity of successful outcome for each alternative to be estimated

3) Uncertainty
- Managers know which goals they wish to achieve
- Information about alternatives and future events is incomplete. E.g. price, production cost and interest rates
- Manager may have to come up with creative approaches to alternatives and use personal judgement to determine which alternatives is best.

4) Ambiguity
- by far the most difficult decision situation
- goals to be acheive or problems to be solve is unclear
- alternatives are difficult to define
- information about outcomes is unavailable

Decision can be programmed or non-programmed

Programmed decision
1) situation has occurs often enough to enable decision rules to be developed and applied in future
2) oce managers formulate decision rules, surbodinates and others can make decisions freeing manager for other tasks

Non programmed decision
1) are response to situations that are unique, poorly defined, largely unstructured and likely to have important consequences for the organization.
2) non programmed decision often involve strategic planning because uncertainty is great and decision are complex


The 6 steps in the managerial decision making process

1. Recognition of decision requirement
2. Diagnosis and analysis of Causes
3. Development of alternatives
4. Selection of desired alternatives
5. Implementation of chosen alternatives
6. Evaluation and feedback


Matrix structure



5 Advantage

1) More efficient use of resource than single hierarchy
2) adaptable to changing environment
3) development of specialist and general management skill
4) expertise available across division
5) enlarge task for employee

5 Disadvantage

1) Dual chain of command
2) high conflict between e 2 side of matrix
3) many meeting to coordinate activities
4) need for human relations training
5) power domination by one side of matrix




Virtual network structure

the idea behind virual network structure is a company can concentrate on what it do best and contract or outsource the other activities to other company. e.g the organization can outsource its distribution, design, transportation, accounting and manufacturing activities to other company. This way the company can do more with less

The 3 advantage is

1) can draw on world wide expertise
2) workforce flexibility, can adjust accordingly to market, demand and also product or marketing plan
3) reduced administrative overhead, most of the activities are being outsource thus the core of organization employs lesser people thus lesser administrative overhead

the 3 disadvantage is

1) lack of control, weakened boundaries, because most activities are being outsource, lesser control and those company tends to act on their own interest
2) increase demand on managers, becos of the weak linkage, greater demand on manager to coordinate activities, manage relationship and define share values.
3) employee loyalty weakened, employee might feel that they can be replaced by a contract serice.
what influence comsumer behaviour

Culture

nationality, race, religion, social class

Social

colleague, friends, family

Personal

age, life cycle, personality, lifestyle, disposable income, occupation finance




Buying process 5 stage model

Stage 1
problem recognition

Stage 2
information search - internet friend store

Stage 3
Evaluation of alternative - brand megapixel

Stage 4
Purchase decision - sales, in store promo, sales person gd

Stage 5
Post-purchase behaviour - after u buy hw u feel? gd? show off? lousy? nv buy again
sales person follow up




Business market
1. fewer but large buyer
2. close supplier-customer rs long term
3. professional purchasing, ppl involve, purchasor exec manager, knowledge infor and guideline
4. several buying influence, fiance budget, policy
5. multiple sales call
6. derive demand, if choco go up, milk and coco will increase
7. inelastic demand, even if raw material go up, still have to buy to make e product
8. fluctuation demand, depends of economy whether do well anot
9. geographically concentrated buyer, a certain place at certain environment suitable will have more buyer
10. Direct purchasing, no middle men




Problem recognition

product specification

supplier search

proposal sollicitation

supplier selection

order-routine specification

Performance review




Customer perceive value
Customer are value maximer, they always want the most out of any purchase we made. They form a value expectation ( for $200 spend they should be getting these quality or function) and act on it. They will buy the product they perceive to have the highest customer value.

CPV = TCV - TCC

TCV = bundle of economical, function and phycological benefits the customer expect from a given market offering

TCC = bundle of cost customer expect to incur in evaluation, obtaining, using and disposing of the given market offering, including monetary, time, energy and psychic cost.




Customer relationship management

1. indentify
2. differentiate
3. interact
4. customize

Strategy
1. Reduce defection
2. increase longevity of customer relationship
3. cross sell and upsell, share wallet
4. terminate low profit customer
5. focus on high profit customer




Segmentation

1. Descriptive characteristic

-Geographical
~high end technology is not ready for developing or not so develop country, not ready.

-Demographic
gender
age
family size
life stage
income
occupation
religion
race
generation
nationality
social class

-Psychographic
personality
lifestyle
values


2. Behavioral characteristics

-Decision roles
Initiator
influencer
decider
buyer
user

-Behavioral variables
Occasions
Benefits
User status
User rates
Buyer-readiness stage
Loyalty status
Attitude


Market Targeting

1. Measureable (size, spending power)
2. Substantial (Large and profitable)
3. Accessible (can be reached & served)
4. Differentiable ( distinguishable & respond differently)
5. Actionable (effective programs to attract & serve)


Evaluating & selecting market segment
1. overall attractiveness of the market - profitability
2. company's objectives & resource - will the company resource able to serve the market effectively?




6 environment force

1. Demographic
-Size and growth of populations
-Age distribution and ethnic mix
-Level of education and household pattern
-Regional movement and characteristic

2. Economic
-Income level
-Saving level
-Debt
-Credit card accessibility
-Prices
Overall spending power

3. Social-Cultural
-Values
-Norm
-beliefs
Overall the product must suit the culture and values

4. Natural
-Shortage of raw material
-Usage of energy
-Increase of pollution emited
-changing role of government in protecting environment, thus might affect consumer choice of product as they are willing to play a part in protecting environment too

5. Technological
-Advancement of technology give rise to opportunity for innovation
-Use of virtual reality, test for consumer reaction to product
-Company with varing budget, content to copy other product, improve it, add new feature and package as a new product
-due to increase of technology there is also increase of rules and regulation, to protect public health and safey as well as privacy issue

6. Political-Legal
-Increase of business legislation, to protect consumer, company and society
-Growth of special interest group
-work withing the law and business practice
-engage in special interest group
exploit opportunity, market reform
-deal with corruption


The marketing research process

1. Define problem, decision alternatives and research objectives
2. Develop research plan
-data source ; primary or secondary
-research approach ; survery, observation, behavioural data, experiment, focus group
-research instrument ; questionaire, qualitative measure, mechanical or technological device
-sampling pan ; sample unit, size and procedure
-research methods ; personal , phone, mail or internet
3. Collect data
4. Analyse date
5. Present finding
6. Make decision




Positioning

Points of parity - same as rival

Points of different - only you have and positively


Diferentiation Strategies:

1. Product
-quality design performance form

2. Service
-ease of order, delivery, maintanence, warantee on site

3. Personel
-courtesy, reliability, competence, customer service hotline

4. Channel
- Wide coverage, everywhere u can see, long hours of opening, expertise in display and selling, retail shop
image

5. Image
-media, events, symbols, marathon tv viewing, celebraties, to up e image


Product Life Cycle

Properties
1. Limited life span
2. Sales pass through distinct stages
3. Different profits at each stage
4. Different strategies in each stage

The 5 stage of life cycle

1. Product development

2. Introduction
-introducing to public, marketing, customer getting to know product

3. Growth
-customer accept product, start buying, increase sales

4. Maturity
-not so popular cause too common, most ppl know about product, sales stable or mayb dropping

5. Decline
-technology advance, trend change, sales drop

Strategies to use

Stage
2. If first in the market, pioneer advantage, first mover advantage. becos its new have to spend more in marketing, introducing to the public, induce trail and secure distributon
Stage

3. spend more on product improvement, new model, flanker product if high end can add in low end htc hd2 and htc hd mini, enter new market segment to have more customer targets, increase distribution more outlet so that every where is ur product, easy to buy also. prodct preference advertising to influence customer to buy the product. lower the price also help to attract more customer

4. market modification, convert non user to user, infreq to freq user
product mod, improve feature, enhance increase feature
marketing program, adjust to 4 p, product place promo pricing to stimulate more demand and interest

5. -withdraw from market, divestment
-decrease level of investment & drop unprofitable customers
-maintain investment until market uncertainties are resolved
-increase investment to dominate market
-harvest what is left of the market




Michael Porter's 5 forces

Threats posed by competitive forces:

1. Intense segment rivalry
- Many electronic shops and retailers offering same product

2. New entrants
_ In terms of barrier, there are not very high. New participant can come into the market easily

3. Substitute products
- Many different kind of electronic product tat can satisfy the same need. eg ,speaker, mp3, sound system, handheld device

4. Buyers' growing bargaining power
- They are able to compare prices among the different shops and retailer

5. Suppliers' growing bargaining power
- If the suppliers are few, they are able to control the prices

Marketing 19 May 2010

Holistic Marketing xx?

swot x

environment zzz

market researc process x

consumer behviour zzz

consumer buying process zzz

organisation buying? zzz

customer value zzz

segmentation zzz

positioning zzz

product life cycle zzz

competition zzz

product development x

go abroad? x

foreign market entry x




environment zzz

consumer behviour zzz

consumer buying process zzz

organisation buying? zzz

customer value zzz

segmentation zzz

positioning zzz

product life cycle zzz

competition zzz

Organisation Behaviour 15 May 2010 revision notes

Manager works with people, coordinate, integrate their work activities to accomplish organisational goals.

Organisation = corporation, firm or company

It is a consciously coordinated social unit
compose of 2 or more ppl,
functions on a relatively continuous basis to achieve a common goal

Conceptual skills, the ability to think and conceptualise about abstract and complex situations, being able to see the big picture. Eg decision making

Technical skill, specialised expertise in a given field

emphasis the downside as well as the upside, of current decisions and future plans. employee gets e clearer picture as well as the whole picture. they know what is going to happen to dem

openly discuss worst case scenario, it is almost never as anxiety provoking than the unspoken fantasy.


Human, people or interpersonal skill, the ability to work well with people or group.
Communicate, motivate and delegate.

4 managerial activities that successful managers engage in

Traditional management, decision making, planning and controlling

Human resource management,
Motivate, disciplining, managing conflict, staffing and training

Communication
, exchanging routine information and processing paper work

Networking
, Socializing, politicking and interacting with outsiders.

Respectively, 13%-11%-28%-48%

Managers need to develop people skill if they are going to be effective and successful.


OB is a field study that investigate the impact of individual, group and structure have on behaviour withing organisations, for the purpose of applying knowledge to improve an organisation effectiveness


Systematic study
-look at relationship
-attribute causes and effect
-draw conclusion based on scientific evidence
This provides a means to predict behaviours

Intuition
-Gut feeling, why i do what i do and what makes others tick.

By supplementing our intuitive opinion with systematic approach, we can improve our predictive ability.


Objective of OB is EPIC

Evaluate employee behaviour
Predict employee behaviour
Improve employee performance
Control employee behaviour


Model is an abstraction of reality,
it is a simplified representation of some real-world phenomenon
model = theory

Individual level--> Group level--> Organisation level


Dependent variable, a response affected by an independent variable. OB researcher tries to understands this;

1)Productiviy, a performance measure that includes effectiveness and efficiency.

Efficiency, meeting goals at low cost

Effectiveness, Achievement of goals

2)Absenteesim, the failure to report to work

3)Turnover, the voluntary and involuntary permanent withdrawal from an organisation

4)Unacceptable workplace behaviour, Voluntary behaviour that violates significant organisation norm, thereby threaten the well-being of the organisation or its member.

5)Organisation citizenship behaviour, discretionary behaviour that is not formally part of job requirement but nonetheless promotes the effective functionng of the organisation.

6) Job satisfaction, is a general attitude towards one's job and is a positive feeling that resulted from an evaluation of the job's characteristics



Independent variable

The presumed caused of some change in the dependent variable


3 different model

1) Individual level variable (physical and emotional frame)
2) Group level variables
3) Organisation system level variables





Learning is any relatively permanent change of behaviour that occurs as a result ofexperience.
principles of learning can be used to shape behaviour

Classical conditioning, associating a natural reaction with a neutral reaction.

Operant conditioning, good behaviour get reward, no reward no repeat of good behaviour.

Social Learning, learning through observation or experience.


Shaping Behaviour, attempting to mould an individual by guiding their learning in graduated steps such that they learn to behave in a way that is most beneficial to the organisation

Key Concepts
1) reinforcement is required to change behaviour
2) some rewards are more effective than others
3) the timing of rewards affects learning speed and permanence

Types of reinforcement
1) Positive reinforcement, i do this to get that
2) negative reinforcement, i do this to avoid that
3) Punishment, causing an unpleasant condition in an attempt to eliminate an undesirable behaviour
4) extinction, not reinforcing a response will lead to the extinction of the response

Positive and Negative reinforcement result in learning, they strengthen a response and increase the probability of a repition.

Punishment and extinction weakens behaviour/response and decrease its subesequent frequency.

Schedules of reinforcement
1) Continuous reinforcement, every time, leads to early satiation

2) Intermittent reinforcement, sometimes and random, prevents/preclude early satiation

3) Fixed interval schedule, after a specific time, bonus, reward are not link to performance, a matter of time, thus lower or normal performance

4) Variable interval schedule, random unknown reinforcement, pop quiz, due to the unknown suprise element, employee are more alert. spot check



OB Mod, the application of reinforcement concepts to individual in the work setting.

Five step problem solving model

1) Identify critical behaviour, the should be behaviour
2) Develop baseline data, the number of times this behaviour occurs
3) Identify behavioural consequences, why this happens and what maintains it
4) Develop and apply intervention, change the reward structure, work, technology, the ways things works
5) Evaluate performance improvement, what is e improvement, rate profit?

Emery Air Freight

1) identify critical behaviours - freight packer using container whenevery posible

2) develop baseline date - determine the number of time the identified behaviour is occurring under present conditions. in this case it is 45% of the shipments were containerised.

3) identify behavioural consequences - social norms and greater difficulty in packing containers. social acceptance and escaping more demanding work

4) develop and apply intervention - change some element of the performance-reward linkage structure, processes, technology, groups or task, with the goal of making high level performance more rewarding. The work technology was altered to requre the keeping of a checklist. The checklist plus the computations at the end of the day of a contaier-utilization rate acted to reinforce the desirable behavior of using containers.

5) evaluate performance improvement - immediate increase in container utilisation rate demonstrated behavioural change took place. that it rose to 90% and held at that level further indicated that learning took place. that is the employees underwent a relatively permanent change in behavior.




Personality - the unique combination of psychological characteristic (measureable traits) that affect how a person reacts and interact with others.

Personality Traits - Enduring characteristic that describe an individual behaviour.


Major Personality Attributes influencing OB

1) Self esteem,
the dgree to which people like or dislike themselves.
- high self esteem people, will take more risk, more confident and trust themself better, ppl with low self esteem are more susceptible to external influence, more dependent on the reciept of positive evaluations from others. thus in managerial position, they will tend to be concern with pleasing others

2) Locus of control (core self-evaluation),

internal locus of control - people believe that they are the master of their own fate
-search more actively for information before making a decision, more motivated to achieve and make a greater attempt to control their environment. initiative and independent.

external locus of control - people believe they are pawns of fate and cannot change their destiny.
-compliant and willing to follow directions, do well on job that are well structured and routine, in which success depends heavily on complying with direction of others.


3) Machiavellianism (Mach) use any means to get his goal

Pragmatic, maintains emotional distance, believes that ends can justify means.
deals better face to face than indirectly, works better in situation with minimal rules and regulation becos of more room for improvisation. emotional involvement with details irrelevane to winning distracts low mach.

4) Narcissism

people with a grandiose sense of self-importance, requires excessive admiration, has a sense of entitlement and arrogant. Wants to gain admiration of others and receive affirmation of their superiority. tends to talk down others and treat them as if they are inferior. selfish, exploitive and believe others exist for their benefit.

5) Self-Monitoring

refer to an individual ability to adjust his or her behaviour to external, situational factors.

high self-monitoring person are highly sensitive to external cues and can behave differently in different situation. capable of presenting striking contradictions between their public persona and their private self.

Low self-monitoring person tends to display their true disposition and attitudes in every situation


6) Risk propensity
the propensity to assume or avoid risk has been shown to impact on how long a manager takes to make a decision and also how much information is required. high risk taking manager tends to make a decision faster and based on lesser information. jobs such as stock trader would be more suitable for a high risk taking manager, where else low risk taking manager would be more suitable for being an accountant that does auditing.

7)Personality Types A and B

type A - hurried, feeling an urgency in doing things, set deadlines for themselves, impatient, multi tasking, obsessed with numbers , measuring their success with how much or how many thing they acquire.

type B - opposite of type A, rarely hurried and always at ease and relax.

Type A tends to fare well in interview because of the sense of urgency in getting things done, high drive, competence and success motivation

8) proactive Personality

proactives identify problems, show initiatives, take action and perservere until meaning change occurs. create positive change in their environment despite obstacle, likely to be seen as leader. they are ppl who most likely to challenge status quo and also voice their displeasure when things are to their likings.




Personality-job fit theory

- an employee's job satisfaction and likelihood of turnover depends on the compatibility of the employee's personality and occupation.

there are differences in personalities that will be suitable for different job, the right fit will result in high job satisfaction, low absenteeism and low turnover and vice versa.

Person Organisation fit Theory

-compactible fit between an individual'a value and value and culture of the organisation they are working for. this predicts job satisfaction, commitment to the org and reduced turnover


Perceptiopn

-A process by which individual organise and intepret their sensory impressions in order to give sense to their environment.

-people's behaviour is based on their perceive reality not the reality itself.

-The world as it is perceived is the world that is behaviourally import


Factors that influence perception

The perceiver can be influence by past experience, motives, interest, expectation, attitdues and personal characteristic and traits as to how he or she perceive things.
eg a policeman is perceive as authorative, young man is perceive as lazy

The target itself can also influence how a person perceive it. The size, background, look, shape, color, sound, motion, similarity proximity.
eg a beautiful woman is more noticeable, attractive. someone who is loud is more likely to be noticed. distinguishable characteristic are often perceive to be alike in other, unrelated way. gender or people of colour.

The situation can affect how the perceiver see things, you might not notice a young guest who 'dress to nines' in a night club, but certainly the very same person with the very same attire would get your attention in a monday class. The person and attire have not change, only the situation has change.



Attribution Theory - tries to explain the way in which we judge people differently, depending on the meaning we attribute to a given behavior. when we observe an individual behaviour, we attempt to attribute it to internally caused or externally caused.

Internal - within the person's control, eg late becos of overslept

External - the person's action is caused by external or situational factor, eg late becos of traffic jam

3 factor that will determine the outcome:

1) Distinctiveness
- is whether an individual display different behaviour in different situation. is the employee e say person which always shunt from tough job. if it is unusual then we are likely to attribute it to externally caused, if it is NOT unusual then we are likely to attribute it to internally caused

2) Consensus
- is whether everyone who faces similar situation reacts in the same way. Eg if everybody who take that route is late for work, it means a high consensus, external.
if every one who took e same route can come on time, it means a low consensus, and it more likely to be attributed to internally caused

3) Consistency
- is the employee consistantly late? high consistency = internal, low consistency = external



Shortcuts used in judging others

Selective perception - we see what we want to see. eg we are more likely to see cars that are similar to e one we drive, my handphone is a touch screen, i m more likely to notice a touch screen phone. most of the sales executive found that e sales aspect is important, most of the production worker noted, the production and quality aspects are more important. because we cant take in all information, we selectively that in those that relevant to us, it could be similar to our goal, interest, background, experience and attitute. selective perception allows us to 'speed read' others but not without the risk of drawing an inaccurate picture.


Halo Effect

- is when we draw a general impression of a person based on the basis of one single characteristic such as intelligent, sociablility or appearance. allowing a single trait to influence their overall impression of the person. eg classic test descript a person given he is warm intelligent determined.

Contrast halo

- our reaction to the person is influence by other people we have recently encounter
eg, a candidate is likely to receive a more favourable evaluation if preceded by mediocre applicant, and a less favourable evaluation if preceded by strong applicant.

Sterotyping

-judging someone by the basis of the perception of the group that he or she belongs to
most of the terrorist attack carried out are done by the muslim but not all muslim are terrorist. eg profiling a manifestation of sterotpying



Types of Attitudes

1) Organisation Commitment
- it is a state in which employee identifies with a particular organisation and its goals and wishes to maintain membership with the organisation.

A) Affective commitment
- emotional attachment to organisation and belief in its values. eg An animal love might be affectively commited to working in Pet Lovers shop because if its involvement with animals

B) Continuance commitment
- it is the perceive economic value of remaining with the organisation compared to leaving it. eh high pay, might hurt the family standard of leaving if he resign

C) Normative commitment
- obligation to remain with the organisation because of moral or ethical reason. eg, if an employee is spearheading a new initiatives or project, he or she might remain at the organisation because he or she would felt that he is leaving the employer in lurch if he left.

In general, affective commitment seems more strongly related to organisation outcomes such as performance and turnover, compared to the other 2 types of commitment.

2) Employee engagement

-it is an individual involvement with, satisfaction with and enthusiasm for the work she does.

Highly engaged employee felt a connection with the organisation and passionate about their work. this leads to high level of customer satisfaction, more productive, increase profit and had lower turnover and accident.

disengaged employee are morely to 'check out', meaning putting the time but not energy and attention into their work.

3) Job involvement
- the degree to which a person identifies with a job and actively participates in it, and consider performance important to self-worth

4) Job Satisfaction

- a positive feeling about one's job resulting from an evaluation of its characteristics.

An employee satisfaction with the job makes up of different job element, eg pay, job scope, co worker. it is the satisfaction of the summation of different job element that makes up his satisfaction level with the job.

2 method to measure it:

1) single global rating method, takes a response to 1 question, such as, all things being equal, how satisfied are you, answer 1-5, 1 being very satisfied, 5 being very unsatisfied.

2) summation of job facets, identify key job elements and ask for employee's feelings, eg nature of job, present pay, promotion opportunities,supervision, relations with coworker. respondent rate them on a standard scale and researchers add the rating to form an overall job satisfaction score.

each method has its own pro and cons, for eg single global rating is less time consuming thus allowing the manager more time to address other issue. on the other hand summation of job facets allows the manager to zero in on where the problem exist, making it easier to deal with unhappy employee and solve problems faster and more accurately.

Both methods show that both are as valid.



Generally people are satisfied in their jobs. it also depends on which facet we are talking about. for instance people tends to be less satisfied with pay and promotion opportunities.

Personality can influence job satisfaction, negative people are usually less satisfied with their job.

people with positive core self-evaluations believe in their inner worth and basic competence are more satisfied with their job.

recent studies show that the correlation between job satisfaction and job performance is moderately strong

correlation is higher for complex jobs

satisfied employee tends to talk positively about the organisation, help others, go beyond the normal expectation in their job. satisfied employee might be more prone to go beyond the call of duty because they wan to reciprocate their positive experience.
- consistent with this thinking, evidence sugguest that job satisfaction is moderately correlated with OCBs.

Fairness or fair treatment, outcome and procedure also explain the relationship between satisfied emloyee and OCBs, when an employee perceive his boss or company procedures or policies as fair, trust developed, and an employee trust an employer, they are more likely to voluntarily engage in behaviours that go beyond the formal job requirements

satisfied employee tends to be friendly, upbeat and responsive, these are qualities that customer appreciate.
becos satisfied employee are less prone to turnover, customer are likely to encounter familiar face, and receive experience service. In the long run, these qualities build customer satisfaction and loyalty.

Happy employee makes happy customer vice versa
Unhappy employee makes unhappy customer
unhappy customer also makes unhappy employee

job satisfaction vs absenteeism is moderate to weak

job satisfaction vs turnover is stronger den above
bad performer = bad satisfaction = no recognition from organisation
satisfaction is not so much of an important factor here, job performance seems more important



A group is 2 or more individual, interacting and interdependent, coming together to achieve a particular goal or objective.

Formal group - designated work group define by organisation's structure

Informal group - a group that is neither formally structured or organisationally determined. it is usually form in response to need for social contact

command group - a group of individual who report directly to a given manager

Task group - a group of individual working together to complete a job.

Interest group - those working together to attain a specific objective, with which each is concerned.

Friendship group - those brought together because they share one or more common characteristics



5 stage model of group development

Forming - great uncertainty in the group structure and leadership, the emphasis is still on the individual. people interact with one another and know more about each other, at a safe distance. member will also be at its best behaviour and they will also test the water to determine what type of behaviour is acceptable. this stage is complete when member think themselves as part of the group

Storming - characterise by intra group conflict, conflict to gain control of the group and position. Potention leader will emerge. this stage is completed when a clear hierachy is drawn

Norming - Everyone has accepted their own roles and responsibilty in the group, close relation is form, trust and bond is build. there is now a strong sense of group identity. This stage is complete when the group has assimilated a common set of expectation as to the accepted behaviour

Performing - the group now is fuly functional accepted, group energy has shifted from getting to know each other to focussing on performing the task at hand.

Adjourning - is the stage where the group is preparing for its disbandment, attention is directed at wrapping up activities. Response of the group member may vary, some might be upbeat, basking in the group's accomplishment, but some are depress over the lost of camaraderie and the friendship gain in the work group's life.

group 4 is generally consider to be most effective but under some situation, high level of conflict might produce high group performance. groups do not always proceed from 1 stage to another, some time several stage can proceed concurrently, eg storming and performing at the same time. Some time the group might even regress because of personel reshuffle or change of task. the five stage model also ignore the organisational context, eg 3 stranger pilot had fly together for the first time, had become a high performance group. they did not go tru the 5 stage because the task, role and information, rules had been provided.

Roles - a set of expected behaviour pattern attributed to someone occupying a given position in a social unit.

role identity, role perceive, role expectation, role conflict. zimbardo's prison experiment

Norm - acceptable behaviour within the group that are share by the groups member.
eg, employee don't critise his boss in the public, golfer dun speak while their partners are putting the green.

performance norm, there is always a group norm about how work should be done, how much output and what level of tardiness is appropriate. the employee might be able to produce more output but due to the group norm he has to scale down his output
appearance norm - dress code, looking busy

Status - a socially defined position or rank given to the group or group member by others.

What determine status?

1) the power a person weild over others - control group resource, controlling outcome through power

2) abiliy to contribute to the group goals - people who contribution is critical to the success of the group tend to have higher power

3) individual personal characteristic - someone who's personal characteristic is positively value by the group, good look, intelligent, money, friendly personality.

high status people are given more freedom to deviate from the norms than other member. high status ppl can also resist conformity pressure better than their lower status peer.

Size - large group is good at gaining diverse input, such as fact finding. Small group are better at doing something productive with that input and smaller group tends to be more effective for taking action.

when working at a big group there is a tendency to rely on others, social loafing, they expend less effort when working collectively than when working individually.

Cohesivebess - the degree to which group members are attracted to each other and motivated to stay in the group

PN - performance norm

high PN HC = high productivity
Low PN HC = loq prs
LC Hpn = moderate
LC LPN = moderate to low



Motivation is the process that accounts an individual direction, intensity and persistency in attaining a goal

ability-opportunity-motivation and performance are all link



sessp

Physiological, basic needs, hunger, shelter, food, sex, thirst
safety, security and protection from physical and emotional harm
social, affection, belongingness,acceptance and friendship
esteem, internal factor - self respect and achievement
external- status and recognition
self actualisation - drive to become what one is capable of fulfilling, including growth and realising potential and self fulfillment


skill variety - number of skill required eg high owner-operator of garage, meet customer, rebuild engine, electrical repair, does body work and interacts with customer. low = accountant

task identity - the degree in which a job requires completion of a whole and identifiable piece of work. eg high cabinet maker low factory worker who specialise in make the table leg.

Task significance the degree to which the job has a substantial impact in the lives or work of other people. eg high nurse low cleaner

Autonomy the degree to which the job provides substantial freedom, independence and discretion in scheduling the work and determining the approach to carry out the work.

eg high sales person, plan own schedule, use his own sales approach without supervision
low sales person follow sales lead, follow script. no control.

feedback the degree in which the job carried out enables the person to obtain result and clear information about his or her own performance.
eg high factory worker after assemble check if e ipod is working
low factory worker after assemble send to qc officer.

Job rotation, cross train , shifting employer from one task to another. train in different department

Job enlargement, increasing the job horizontally, including more task, sort out mail + deliver mail

Job enrichment, increasing the job vertically, giving more freedom, responsibility and independence.

communication is the transference and understanding of meaning.

forster motivation
outlet for release of emotional expression
provide information for decision making
control behaviour, rules

Sender - message to be send and encoding - channel - msg receive and decoding
in between noise. last link feed back

sender initiates a messenge through encoding a thought, the physical form of the message is the product of the encoding. eg write = writing is message gesture = movement of hands and body or facial expression is message.

channel is the form medium through which the channel travel. formal and informal. establish tru organisation, transmit msg that are related to professional activity of members. informal are social or personal, spontaneous.

receiver is e person receive the message and be4 message can be receive, the signal and sign or symbols must be decoded.

noise represents the communication barriers that distort the clarity of the message

perceptual problem, culture differences and information overload.

feedback refer to checking on the message send, whether it is understood as it is originally intended.

Grapevine - not under the control of management
- perceive by most employee as more reliable and believable than formal communication
- largely use by those to serve the self-interest of those who use it

implication for manager,
give manager a feel of the morale of organisation, identify issues that employee consider important, help taps into employee anxiety. it also serve employee's needs, small talks create a sense of closeness and develop friendship.

management cannot eliminate rumours but can minimize the negative impact of rumour by, annoucing timetable for making important decision, deadline to let employee no tis or that

explain decision that are inconsistent or secretive. clarify and avoid any misunderstanding or interpreting

GBA for Quatitative Analysis

Q1. An Introduction and Background discussion on mythology of forecasting.

Forecasting is the means of judging, calculating or predicting an estimation of a set of conditions, values or events that have yet to happen and will be likely to take place in the future.

Forecasting plays a big role in our daily life as well as making strategic decision in any major organization.

We forecast on how long will the bus arrive, we forecast on who will win the next world cup competition.

In the corporate world, managers relies on forecasts and predictions on future sales and economics outlook to make important decision. From hiring extra workers to cope with the increasing number of customers to building multi-millions condominium to cater to the rising demand of housing needs.

Forecasting methods can be categorised into quantitative or qualitative.

Qualitative methods:

Delphi method

A group of experts were asked to provide their forecast on specific area of interests. The initial forecasts of all the experts were then made known to all and they were ask to provide a second forecast. The process will be repeated til the forecast narrows down to a degree of consensus.

Expert Judgment

A panel of expects coming together to make a forecast based on the relevant field. The panel of expect will draw on the information available and their own expertise and knowledge to arrive at a combined conclusion.

Scenario Writing

Many scenarios are created based on the different assumptions. The decision maker will then decide which is the scenario with the highest chances of happening and plan accordingly.

Intuitive approaches.

A group of people were ask to provide any ideas, expectations or opinions in regards to a specified area of interest, under no restriction, limits, peer pressure or any form of criticism.

Quantitative method

Causal forecasting

It is forecasting technique based on the assumption that the variable that we are forecasting on has a cause-and effect relationship with another variable/variables.

time series

It is a method of forecasting based on past data or model to forecast future movements or events.

The component of time series include :

Trend component - refer as the gradual change of value over time.

Cyclical component - refer as the alternating sequence of value beyond or over the trend line, a fall of value follow by a increase and then a fall and a increase and so on over time.

Seasonal Componenet -refer as the changes of the values due to seasonal movement over time

Irregular Component - refer as the changes of values cause by sudden, unexpected and one-time off events or factors, over time

Smoothing methods :

Moving Averages
Weighted Moving Averages
Exponential Smoothing

The purpose of smoothing methods is to even out the random changes caused by the irregular component.

Trend projection refers to using the rate of changes base on the past value to forecast a specific value in a specific point of time in the future, assuming that the rate of changes remains relatively stable.
Part 1:
Based on your personal experience with teamwork in UniSIM, either from BUS107 or earlier modules,
what do you think you can do and should do to maximise teamwork for the best GBA effectiveness?

I feel that having teammates with similar mindset, commitment and expectation is very important. When finding teammates it is important to take note of :

1. the working hours of the teammates

I might be available to meet on weekdays after work, but my teammates are only available to meet on the weekend.

2. the mode of communications

I prefer to discuss online and clarify through email, but my teammates prefer to meet up at their own prefered destination.

3. the commitments, how many hours can each of us commit to meetings for the project

I can put in 3 hours daily to do research for my project and expect to meet up on weekend and put in the whole afternoon for project discussion. My teammates only prefer to meet up for 30min to discuss an overview of the project.

4. the expected grade for the project

I expect to ace the module but my teammates are all aiming for a pass.

As stated above, you can find yourself/team in conflicting situation and all this can have a big impact in the quality of the GBA produced.

I feel Unisim lecturer should all give us a form and fill up our commitment,expected grade,mode of communication and our working hours, and give us sometimes to mingle around and look for teammates with similar mindset to maximise teamwork for best GBA effectiveness.









Part 2:
a. What's the SIGNIFICANCE of moving the Objective Function line, also known as ISO-Profit line outwards/upwards?

Through moving the Objective Function line, we can get different solution within the feasible region, each of the solution consist of different yield. The significance of moving the line is that we can obtain the solution with the maximum yield (maximum profit).

b. How do we decide WHEN to stop moving

From a graph, we should stop just before we venture out of the common shaded region.

If not, we must take note of the range and limit of the input.

E.g: p > 5 or x < 7

value of p must not go below 5, or in the case of x, value of x must not be bigger the 7

Quantative Methods 4 Apr 2010

Forum Discussion 10%

Posting 1: Discuss the different roles played by qualitative and quantitative approaches to managerial decision-making.

Why is it important for a manager or decision-maker to have a good understanding of both of these approaches to decision-making?


Quantitative approach refers to the method of collecting information via surveys from a random study group, obtaining statistic by analysing from various set of data and record, tabulating of numeric tables. The information drawn is then use to assist in making decisions.

This approach plays a prominent role in various sector like finance and manufacturing sector. For example, A finance manager would rely on forecast and ratings to plan for allocation of budget. What are the rates of interest, what is their capital gains and how much to allocate for the funds and investments.

A manager in the manufacturing sector would need to justify his proposal for a new production plant or equipment by anticipating the demands and consider in long term the sustainability of the purchase.


Qualitative approach refers to method of obtaining information via interviews, observations from a group of participant and discussion within focus group.

This approach is mainly use in marketing and customer service sector. A guest relation manager who face a high amount of customer complaints in outlet A, as compared to outlet B. He would need to use qualitative approach to determine what are the areas of concern. Is it because of the customer service, the quality of the food or the waiting time.

When a marketing manager decides to launch a new product, service or plan, he will use the information collected from the focus group. What is the key attractions, why they are attracted to the particular feature, which age group is attracted to which plans? All these information will help the manager to plan and execute the launch.


Managers make decision everyday, an important decision can cost the company millions of dollars, so it is of utmost importance that a manager have a very good understanding of both approaches. Some situation requires the use of quantitative approach, where else some requires the use of qualitative approach, but in certain situation, it needs both approach to work hand in hand in order to work effectively.





Posting 2: a. What do we mean by the term "Formulation" ? What do we need to come out with when we "formulate" an LP problem?

b. How do you sketch the constraint lines on the x1-x2 plane?

c. What is the meaning of "feasible region"?

d. How do you locate the "feasible region"?

a) Formulation basically mean stringing a set of numbers and arithmetic into a mathematical equation.

When formulating to solve for an LP problem, we need to:

-Define the decision variables clearly

X1 is the number of shoe
x2 is the number of slipper

-Write the objective in terms of the decision variables in regards to maximum profit

x1+x2 = Z (max)

-Write the constraints in terms of the decision variables

4x1+2x2 ≥ 10 (constraints due to manpower)
5x1+7x2 ≥ 15 (constraints due to resources)


b) First assume x1 = 0
x1-x2 = 5
0-x2 = 5
x2 = -5

Point A (0,-5)

Then assume x2 = 0
x1-x2 = 5
x1-0 = 5
x1 =5

Point B (5,0)

Joint point A and B together to form a straight line. The line will represent the equation of the constraint line.

c) The feasible region is the area in a graph which satisfy all constraints simultaneously.

d) For every constraint there is an area that falls under that particular constraint. The area that is overlapped by all constraints is the feasible region



http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m1038/is_n4_v32/ai_7907215/pg_3/?tag=content;col1
http://oregonstate.edu/instruct/anth370/gloss.html#O
http://www.uwa.com/mk_b_003.asp
http://lionhrtpub.com/orms/orms-12-98/bell.html
http://www.strategicmanagementscience.com/info/mgmt_sci.asp


You are expected to contribute 3 postings:

One for EACH of the above and a response to (comment on) any posting from any of your class-mates.

Please note the deadline for this exercise is 4 April 2010, 2359hrs.

Gentle reminder - there is a 10% grading for this discussion.





You will be graded based on the following criteria: The relevance & quality of your ideas, the way you organise and present your ideas,

evidence of critical thinking/analysis as well as the number of postings you make.