Q1. An Introduction and Background discussion on mythology of forecasting.
Forecasting is the means of judging, calculating or predicting an estimation of a set of conditions, values or events that have yet to happen and will be likely to take place in the future.
Forecasting plays a big role in our daily life as well as making strategic decision in any major organization.
We forecast on how long will the bus arrive, we forecast on who will win the next world cup competition.
In the corporate world, managers relies on forecasts and predictions on future sales and economics outlook to make important decision. From hiring extra workers to cope with the increasing number of customers to building multi-millions condominium to cater to the rising demand of housing needs.
Forecasting methods can be categorised into quantitative or qualitative.
Qualitative methods:
Delphi method
A group of experts were asked to provide their forecast on specific area of interests. The initial forecasts of all the experts were then made known to all and they were ask to provide a second forecast. The process will be repeated til the forecast narrows down to a degree of consensus.
Expert Judgment
A panel of expects coming together to make a forecast based on the relevant field. The panel of expect will draw on the information available and their own expertise and knowledge to arrive at a combined conclusion.
Scenario Writing
Many scenarios are created based on the different assumptions. The decision maker will then decide which is the scenario with the highest chances of happening and plan accordingly.
Intuitive approaches.
A group of people were ask to provide any ideas, expectations or opinions in regards to a specified area of interest, under no restriction, limits, peer pressure or any form of criticism.
Quantitative method
Causal forecasting
It is forecasting technique based on the assumption that the variable that we are forecasting on has a cause-and effect relationship with another variable/variables.
time series
It is a method of forecasting based on past data or model to forecast future movements or events.
The component of time series include :
Trend component - refer as the gradual change of value over time.
Cyclical component - refer as the alternating sequence of value beyond or over the trend line, a fall of value follow by a increase and then a fall and a increase and so on over time.
Seasonal Componenet -refer as the changes of the values due to seasonal movement over time
Irregular Component - refer as the changes of values cause by sudden, unexpected and one-time off events or factors, over time
Smoothing methods :
Moving Averages
Weighted Moving Averages
Exponential Smoothing
The purpose of smoothing methods is to even out the random changes caused by the irregular component.
Trend projection refers to using the rate of changes base on the past value to forecast a specific value in a specific point of time in the future, assuming that the rate of changes remains relatively stable.
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Samuel
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Part 1:
Based on your personal experience with teamwork in UniSIM, either from BUS107 or earlier modules,
what do you think you can do and should do to maximise teamwork for the best GBA effectiveness?
I feel that having teammates with similar mindset, commitment and expectation is very important. When finding teammates it is important to take note of :
1. the working hours of the teammates
I might be available to meet on weekdays after work, but my teammates are only available to meet on the weekend.
2. the mode of communications
I prefer to discuss online and clarify through email, but my teammates prefer to meet up at their own prefered destination.
3. the commitments, how many hours can each of us commit to meetings for the project
I can put in 3 hours daily to do research for my project and expect to meet up on weekend and put in the whole afternoon for project discussion. My teammates only prefer to meet up for 30min to discuss an overview of the project.
4. the expected grade for the project
I expect to ace the module but my teammates are all aiming for a pass.
As stated above, you can find yourself/team in conflicting situation and all this can have a big impact in the quality of the GBA produced.
I feel Unisim lecturer should all give us a form and fill up our commitment,expected grade,mode of communication and our working hours, and give us sometimes to mingle around and look for teammates with similar mindset to maximise teamwork for best GBA effectiveness.
Part 2:
a. What's the SIGNIFICANCE of moving the Objective Function line, also known as ISO-Profit line outwards/upwards?
Through moving the Objective Function line, we can get different solution within the feasible region, each of the solution consist of different yield. The significance of moving the line is that we can obtain the solution with the maximum yield (maximum profit).
b. How do we decide WHEN to stop moving
From a graph, we should stop just before we venture out of the common shaded region.
If not, we must take note of the range and limit of the input.
E.g: p > 5 or x < 7
value of p must not go below 5, or in the case of x, value of x must not be bigger the 7
Based on your personal experience with teamwork in UniSIM, either from BUS107 or earlier modules,
what do you think you can do and should do to maximise teamwork for the best GBA effectiveness?
I feel that having teammates with similar mindset, commitment and expectation is very important. When finding teammates it is important to take note of :
1. the working hours of the teammates
I might be available to meet on weekdays after work, but my teammates are only available to meet on the weekend.
2. the mode of communications
I prefer to discuss online and clarify through email, but my teammates prefer to meet up at their own prefered destination.
3. the commitments, how many hours can each of us commit to meetings for the project
I can put in 3 hours daily to do research for my project and expect to meet up on weekend and put in the whole afternoon for project discussion. My teammates only prefer to meet up for 30min to discuss an overview of the project.
4. the expected grade for the project
I expect to ace the module but my teammates are all aiming for a pass.
As stated above, you can find yourself/team in conflicting situation and all this can have a big impact in the quality of the GBA produced.
I feel Unisim lecturer should all give us a form and fill up our commitment,expected grade,mode of communication and our working hours, and give us sometimes to mingle around and look for teammates with similar mindset to maximise teamwork for best GBA effectiveness.
Part 2:
a. What's the SIGNIFICANCE of moving the Objective Function line, also known as ISO-Profit line outwards/upwards?
Through moving the Objective Function line, we can get different solution within the feasible region, each of the solution consist of different yield. The significance of moving the line is that we can obtain the solution with the maximum yield (maximum profit).
b. How do we decide WHEN to stop moving
From a graph, we should stop just before we venture out of the common shaded region.
If not, we must take note of the range and limit of the input.
E.g: p > 5 or x < 7
value of p must not go below 5, or in the case of x, value of x must not be bigger the 7
Quantative Methods 4 Apr 2010
Posted by
Samuel
comments (0)
Forum Discussion 10%
Posting 1: Discuss the different roles played by qualitative and quantitative approaches to managerial decision-making.
Why is it important for a manager or decision-maker to have a good understanding of both of these approaches to decision-making?
Quantitative approach refers to the method of collecting information via surveys from a random study group, obtaining statistic by analysing from various set of data and record, tabulating of numeric tables. The information drawn is then use to assist in making decisions.
This approach plays a prominent role in various sector like finance and manufacturing sector. For example, A finance manager would rely on forecast and ratings to plan for allocation of budget. What are the rates of interest, what is their capital gains and how much to allocate for the funds and investments.
A manager in the manufacturing sector would need to justify his proposal for a new production plant or equipment by anticipating the demands and consider in long term the sustainability of the purchase.
Qualitative approach refers to method of obtaining information via interviews, observations from a group of participant and discussion within focus group.
This approach is mainly use in marketing and customer service sector. A guest relation manager who face a high amount of customer complaints in outlet A, as compared to outlet B. He would need to use qualitative approach to determine what are the areas of concern. Is it because of the customer service, the quality of the food or the waiting time.
When a marketing manager decides to launch a new product, service or plan, he will use the information collected from the focus group. What is the key attractions, why they are attracted to the particular feature, which age group is attracted to which plans? All these information will help the manager to plan and execute the launch.
Managers make decision everyday, an important decision can cost the company millions of dollars, so it is of utmost importance that a manager have a very good understanding of both approaches. Some situation requires the use of quantitative approach, where else some requires the use of qualitative approach, but in certain situation, it needs both approach to work hand in hand in order to work effectively.
Posting 2: a. What do we mean by the term "Formulation" ? What do we need to come out with when we "formulate" an LP problem?
b. How do you sketch the constraint lines on the x1-x2 plane?
c. What is the meaning of "feasible region"?
d. How do you locate the "feasible region"?
a) Formulation basically mean stringing a set of numbers and arithmetic into a mathematical equation.
When formulating to solve for an LP problem, we need to:
-Define the decision variables clearly
X1 is the number of shoe
x2 is the number of slipper
-Write the objective in terms of the decision variables in regards to maximum profit
x1+x2 = Z (max)
-Write the constraints in terms of the decision variables
4x1+2x2 ≥ 10 (constraints due to manpower)
5x1+7x2 ≥ 15 (constraints due to resources)
b) First assume x1 = 0
x1-x2 = 5
0-x2 = 5
x2 = -5
Point A (0,-5)
Then assume x2 = 0
x1-x2 = 5
x1-0 = 5
x1 =5
Point B (5,0)
Joint point A and B together to form a straight line. The line will represent the equation of the constraint line.
c) The feasible region is the area in a graph which satisfy all constraints simultaneously.
d) For every constraint there is an area that falls under that particular constraint. The area that is overlapped by all constraints is the feasible region
http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m1038/is_n4_v32/ai_7907215/pg_3/?tag=content;col1
http://oregonstate.edu/instruct/anth370/gloss.html#O
http://www.uwa.com/mk_b_003.asp
http://lionhrtpub.com/orms/orms-12-98/bell.html
http://www.strategicmanagementscience.com/info/mgmt_sci.asp
You are expected to contribute 3 postings:
One for EACH of the above and a response to (comment on) any posting from any of your class-mates.
Please note the deadline for this exercise is 4 April 2010, 2359hrs.
Gentle reminder - there is a 10% grading for this discussion.
You will be graded based on the following criteria: The relevance & quality of your ideas, the way you organise and present your ideas,
evidence of critical thinking/analysis as well as the number of postings you make.
Posting 1: Discuss the different roles played by qualitative and quantitative approaches to managerial decision-making.
Why is it important for a manager or decision-maker to have a good understanding of both of these approaches to decision-making?
Quantitative approach refers to the method of collecting information via surveys from a random study group, obtaining statistic by analysing from various set of data and record, tabulating of numeric tables. The information drawn is then use to assist in making decisions.
This approach plays a prominent role in various sector like finance and manufacturing sector. For example, A finance manager would rely on forecast and ratings to plan for allocation of budget. What are the rates of interest, what is their capital gains and how much to allocate for the funds and investments.
A manager in the manufacturing sector would need to justify his proposal for a new production plant or equipment by anticipating the demands and consider in long term the sustainability of the purchase.
Qualitative approach refers to method of obtaining information via interviews, observations from a group of participant and discussion within focus group.
This approach is mainly use in marketing and customer service sector. A guest relation manager who face a high amount of customer complaints in outlet A, as compared to outlet B. He would need to use qualitative approach to determine what are the areas of concern. Is it because of the customer service, the quality of the food or the waiting time.
When a marketing manager decides to launch a new product, service or plan, he will use the information collected from the focus group. What is the key attractions, why they are attracted to the particular feature, which age group is attracted to which plans? All these information will help the manager to plan and execute the launch.
Managers make decision everyday, an important decision can cost the company millions of dollars, so it is of utmost importance that a manager have a very good understanding of both approaches. Some situation requires the use of quantitative approach, where else some requires the use of qualitative approach, but in certain situation, it needs both approach to work hand in hand in order to work effectively.
Posting 2: a. What do we mean by the term "Formulation" ? What do we need to come out with when we "formulate" an LP problem?
b. How do you sketch the constraint lines on the x1-x2 plane?
c. What is the meaning of "feasible region"?
d. How do you locate the "feasible region"?
a) Formulation basically mean stringing a set of numbers and arithmetic into a mathematical equation.
When formulating to solve for an LP problem, we need to:
-Define the decision variables clearly
X1 is the number of shoe
x2 is the number of slipper
-Write the objective in terms of the decision variables in regards to maximum profit
x1+x2 = Z (max)
-Write the constraints in terms of the decision variables
4x1+2x2 ≥ 10 (constraints due to manpower)
5x1+7x2 ≥ 15 (constraints due to resources)
b) First assume x1 = 0
x1-x2 = 5
0-x2 = 5
x2 = -5
Point A (0,-5)
Then assume x2 = 0
x1-x2 = 5
x1-0 = 5
x1 =5
Point B (5,0)
Joint point A and B together to form a straight line. The line will represent the equation of the constraint line.
c) The feasible region is the area in a graph which satisfy all constraints simultaneously.
d) For every constraint there is an area that falls under that particular constraint. The area that is overlapped by all constraints is the feasible region
http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m1038/is_n4_v32/ai_7907215/pg_3/?tag=content;col1
http://oregonstate.edu/instruct/anth370/gloss.html#O
http://www.uwa.com/mk_b_003.asp
http://lionhrtpub.com/orms/orms-12-98/bell.html
http://www.strategicmanagementscience.com/info/mgmt_sci.asp
You are expected to contribute 3 postings:
One for EACH of the above and a response to (comment on) any posting from any of your class-mates.
Please note the deadline for this exercise is 4 April 2010, 2359hrs.
Gentle reminder - there is a 10% grading for this discussion.
You will be graded based on the following criteria: The relevance & quality of your ideas, the way you organise and present your ideas,
evidence of critical thinking/analysis as well as the number of postings you make.
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